REPORT: People are ditching cable at a faster clip than previously thought

screen shot 2017-09-12 at 55636 pmTV ad spending will be lower than anticipated this year, according to eMarketer, because people are cord-cutting at a faster clip than previously expected.

According to the market-research company, TV ad spending in 2017 will expand just 0.5% to $71.65 billion, down from the $72.72 billion predicted in its first-quarter forecast for 2017. Further, it said, TV’s share of total media ad spending in the US will drop to 34.9% and is expected to fall below 30% by 2021.

“eMarketer expected a slowdown this year in TV ad sales, after 2016 benefited from both the Olympics and US presidential election,” said Monica Peart, eMarketer’s senior forecasting director. “However, traditional TV advertising is slowing even more than expected, as viewers switch their time and attention to the growing list of live streaming and over-the-top [OTT] platforms.”

Cord-cutters, or consumers who are opting for getting their TV via the internet rather than traditional pay TV services, are a major factor behind tempered TV ad spending. As the phenomenon gains momentum, traditional pay TV operators like Dish Network are developing their own streaming platforms such as Sling TV, networks such as HBO and ESPN are launching or planning their own standalone digital subscription services, and digital players like Hulu and YouTube are delivering live TV channels over the web at lower prices.

In fact, cord-cutting has become so prevalent that even telecommunication companies like AT&T and T-Mobile have jumped in on the action in recent weeks, offering customers bundle deals with access to streaming services like Netflix and HBO.

Screen Shot 2017 09 12 at 5.57.54 PM

eMarketer has also increased its estimates for the growth in cord-cutters substantially for 2017 through 2021, saying that by 2021 the number of cord-cutters will nearly equal the number of people who have never had traditional pay TV, or “cord-nevers.”

The company forecasts that there will be 22.2 million cord-cutters over the age of 18 this year, more than the 15.4 million the company had previously predicted. This figure is up 33.2% over 2016. The number of US adult cord-nevers is expected to grow 5.8% this year to 34.4 million.

“Younger audiences continue to switch to either exclusively watching OTT video or watching them in combination with free TV options,” said Chris Bendtsen, the senior forecasting analyst at eMarketer. “Last year, even the Olympics and presidential elections could not prevent younger audiences from abandoning pay TV.”

While eMarketer predicts that 196.3 million US adults will still watch traditional pay TV, including cable, satellite, or telco, this year, that number would be down 2.4% from 2016. By 2021, the company thinks, that total will have fallen nearly 10% compared with 2016.

US adults who watch TV are spending less time in front of the screen as well. The average time spent watching TV among US adults this year will drop 3.1% to three hours, 58 minutes a day this year, according to eMarketer, the first time it has dropped below four hours.

In contrast, digital video consumption continues to rise. US adults will consume one hour, 17 minutes of digital video this year, the company said, up 9.3% over 2016.

NFL Super Bowl draws lower TV ratings than previous two games

Screen Shot 2017-02-06 at 9.41.09 AM.pngFox Television’s broadcast of Super Bowl LI on Sunday night drew a 48.8 overnight rating, according to Nielsen data released by the network, lower than the previous two Super Bowls.

The contest included a thrilling finish, with the New England Patriots topping the Atlanta Falcons in the National Football league’s first-ever Super Bowl overtime. The Patriots came back from a 25-point deficit and quarterback Tom Brady, 39, won his record fifth championship.

The brief overtime, in which the Patriots scored a touchdown in their first possession, allowed Fox to add four more commercials, and the network brought in an estimated $509.6 million in ad revenue for the broadcast, according to research firm iSpot.TV.

Last year’s Super Bowl drew a 49.0 overnight rating, while the Patriots’ previous title game appearance in 2015 helped Comcast Corp’s NBC television draw a 49.7 rating, the highest overnight rating on record.

The overnight rating measures 56 major markets in the United States, representing about 70 percent of the country and is an early indication of what the final number will be.

Fox, a unit of 21st Century Fox, will have final numbers, including viewership, later on Monday.

‘Digital’ Poised To Overtake TV Ad Spending Earlier Than Expected

215529The shift in ad industry market share from so-called “analogue” media to “digital” media is accelerating, and the latter is now expected to surpass television’s historically dominant share of U.S. ad spending by the end of 2016 — months sooner than expected, according to the statsmasters at eMarketer.

Putting aside that television is a digital medium too, eMarketer’s estimates categorize it separately from things like online and mobile digital media and based on its calculations, the sum of those categories will reach $72.09 billion by year end — a smidgen higher than the U.S. TV ad marketplace’s projected $71.29 billion.

“That means digital will represent 36.8% of total U.S. media spending, while TV will represent 36.4%,” according to an eMarketer spokesperson, noting that the firm’s original projections — made in March — called for TV vs. digital’s market share tipping point not to happen until sometime next year.

What makes digital’s ascendance so remarkable is that it occurred during a so-called “quadrennial” year in which TV ad spending benefitted from incremental spending from both a Summer Olympics and a presidential political season.

The eMarketer report notes that TV is, in fact, continuing to expand — it’s just not growing as fast as digital ad spending.

“The strong performance of the digital ad market is being driven by several factors, including, not surprisingly, mobile and video,” eMarketer notes, adding: “Mobile ad spending will grow 45.0% this year to reach $45.95 billion. As it grows, it will represent an increasing share of overall ad spending. By 2019, mobile will represent more than a third of total media ad spending in the US. Google is the undisputed king of mobile and will remain so for the foreseeable future. Google will capture 32.0% of the mobile ad market — its closest rival Facebook capturing 22.1% this year.”

Digital Video Ad Spending Soars, Budgets Coming Mainly From TV

vidbudget_jn1fJ8dAd spending on original digital — both desktop and mobile — programming has more than doubled since 2014, and those budgets have come primarily out of television, according to findings of a survey of advertiser and agency executives released this morning by the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB).

Results of the survey, which suggest a significant shift is taking place in the TV/video advertising marketplace, not surprisingly were released this morning by the IAB on the first day of its week-long Digital Content NewFronts in New York City.

The survey, which was conducted by Advertiser Perceptions, polled 360 ad executives between March 14 and 25, and found that their average video ad spending has nearly doubled over the past three years, but their investments in the kind of “original” digital video programming being showcased at the NewFronts rose 114% in two years.

Read full article here.

5 Things Advertisers Should Know About Twitter’s NFL Livestreaming Deal

greenbay-packers-nfl-hed-2012_0Twitter announced a deal with the NFL today to livestream 10 of the league’s 16 Thursday Night Football games next season. The league chose Twitter over Amazon and Verizon for the digital rights to the games. A source familiar with the agreement said it was finalized this week.

The source also disclosed a few ramifications for advertisers of the Twitter-NFL agreement, and Adweek spoke with industry players to get their take. Click HERE for the five most important things we learned from the announcement.

 

How Millennials Consume TV Depends on Which Stage of Life They’re In (via Adweek)

There’s a reason that millennials are so hard for advertisers to pin down: Their media consumption is in constant flux, given that adults in that 18-34 demo are in “rapid transition.” That’s according to Nielsen’s Q4 2015 Total Audience Report, released this morning, which delved into the media consumption habits of advertising’s most elusive, and often mystifying, demographic.

The report found millennials who have started a family spend significantly more time watching TV—an average of an hour per day more than those who don’t have children or still live with their parents.

“It’s not about age, it’s about life stage,” wrote Glenn Enoch, evp, audience insights for Nielsen, in the report. “18-34 year olds are not a monolithic group with a common set of technologies or behaviors. Their lives are in rapid transition as they join the workforce, move into their own homes and start families.”

The Total Audience Report, which is not to be confused with the Total Audience Measurement ratings that Nielsen is rolling, broke millennials into three separate life stage groups: Dependent Adults (those who are living in someone else’s home, usually a parent or parents), On Their Own (those who are living in their own home, with no children) and Starting a Family (those living in their own home, with children).

For example, 97 percent of 18-year-olds live in someone’s else home, usually a parent or parents. But 90 percent of 34-year-olds live in their own home, while 60 percent of those have children. In the middle of the demo, roughly one-third of 26- and 27-year-olds falls into each of the three life stages.

Those three groups had very different media preferences during Q4 2015:millennial-life-stages-nielsen-01-2016.png

Get full article here.

Super Bowl Ad Tracker: Everything We Know About 2016’s Commercials (Via Adweek)

Welcome to Adweek’s Super Bowl Ad Tracker for 2016, an up-to-date list of the brands running Super Bowl spots and the agencies involved in creating them.

Leading up to game day on Feb. 7, CBS is reportedly holding back a handful of 30-second spots, priced “north of $5 million a spot,” for brands hoping to make a late entrance into the Big Game. Overall, ad prices for this year’s game have been up about 11 percent compared to 2015.

Take a look below at all the news, organized by category. As game day approaches, we will continue to update the tracker and include the official ads and previews as they roll out, so be sure to check back regularly.

Recent updates:

  • Laundry detergent brand Persil ProClean is in the Big Game this year.
  • Odell Beckham Jr. and Emily Ratajkowski will star in Buick’s first Super Bowl ad.
  • Outdoor apparel brand Marmot is running its first Super Bowl campaign.
  • Butterfinger released a teaser featuring Billy Eichner.
  • SoFi released its first-ever Super Bowl spot.
  • Snickers rolled out a teaser featuring a hungry Marilyn Monroe.
  • Squarespace tapped comedic duo Key & Peele for its 30-second spot.
  • Pokémon’s full spot is live.

Get the full rundown here.